Image Courtesy of NASA Goddard Photo and Video.
Rosimar Rios-Berrios’s journey from being a young girl in hurricane-prone Puerto Rico to a leading atmospheric scientist is as inspiring as it is impactful. Raised on the small Caribbean island, often described as the “Hurricane Highway,” her early life was shaped by powerful storms—now, her research reveals a new way to predict hurricanes weeks in advance.
“Growing up, my family and I experienced firsthand the direct impacts of hurricanes,” Rios-Berrios said. In 1998, when she was just nine years old, a Category Three hurricane devastated her community, and her friends and neighbors lost everything. This event—and others like it—fueled her determination to better understand these natural forces, initially as a television meteorologist. But as she embarked on her undergraduate studies in physics at the University of Puerto Rico, specializing in meteorology, her passion for research began to take shape.
Rios-Berrios’s academic journey took a pivotal turn during her PhD at the University at Albany, New York, where her focus shifted to the complex science of tropical cyclogenesis—the process by which tropical storms and hurricanes form. It was during this time that she became interested in the phenomenon of atmospheric Kelvin waves—large-scale disturbances in the atmosphere that some scientists had long suspected influenced the development of hurricanes.
Kelvin waves typically consist of large clusters of clouds and precipitation, and their presence can influence wind patterns, temperatures, and overall atmospheric circulation. They propagate eastward along the equator but can also affect areas to the north and south of the equator. Kelvin waves can increase or decrease the amount of precipitation over tropical oceans and lands, including agricultural areas over South America and Africa. Initially, Rios-Berrios was fascinated by the potential role of Kelvin waves in tropical cyclone formation but lacked a robust way to explore this topic in further detail so early in her PhD.
The right time came along during Rios-Berrios’s postdoctoral research at the National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, when she was tasked with coming up with a new research topic. Supported by a fellowship that allowed her academic freedom, Rios-Berrios finally delved into Kelvin waves, deciding to focus on tropical cyclogenesis and its variability rather than the dynamics of already-formed hurricanes.
One of her key tools during this phase was an “aquaplanet” model. The Earth is a complicated system, and there are a lot of factors that explain when, where, and why a hurricane forms. This, unfortunately, makes it incredibly hard for researchers to analyze how Kelvin waves affect cyclogenesis. To solve this problem, Rios-Berrios, along with co-researchers Brian H. Tang, Christopher A. Davis, and Jonathan Martinez, utilized an atmospheric model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research to create an aquaplanet—a simplified version of Earth—as a model substitute. The aquaplanet has no land, seasons, El Niño, or La Niña. Thanks to its simplicity, the aquaplanet allows scientists to isolate any combination of factors to see how they specifically affect hurricane formation while maintaining the physical characteristics of Earth—and thereby the model’s validity.
Using this framework, Rios-Berrios’s team planned to isolate the role Kelvin waves play in hurricane formation. But first, she needed to answer a crucial question: How precisely could they find and track Kelvin waves?
To locate Kelvin waves, the team used a technique called spatiotemporal filtering to analyze rainfall rates in the aquaplanet. In simple terms, rainfall rates were detected and plotted over a period of time and longitude, which was shown in previous studies to indicate the presence of Kelvin waves. To detect hurricanes and cyclogenesis in the aquaplanet, a different approach was needed. Hurricanes present certain features in the atmosphere that scientists can use to detect the existence of hurricanes and their potential movement and location. Rios-Berrios’s team used an algorithm called TRACK to perform this analysis, which looked specifically for a circulation to identify cyclones. From here, it was onto the fun part—finding out whether Kelvin waves were really a major cause of cyclogenesis, and what that connection might entail.
After identifying Kelvin waves, the team tracked the relationship between Kelvin waves and hurricanes by recording the amount of time between when a Kelvin wave passes a longitude and when the cyclone actually forms at that same longitude. The team found that there was a statistically significant correlation between Kelvin wave crests and hurricane formation. The results showed that, on average, a hurricane is twice as likely to develop two days after the Kelvin wave reaches its “crest,” or highest point. Because the aquaplanet simulation still retains many of the same characteristics as Earth, these results suggest that Kelvin waves are not only correlated with hurricane formation, but may indeed help induce it.
Rios-Berrios’s research shows that these atmospheric waves can strongly increase the likelihood of storm development by augmenting atmospheric conditions that are conducive to the birth of tropical cyclones. This discovery has opened the door to new possibilities in the long-standing challenge of predicting hurricane formation.
With current methods, scientists can predict hurricanes only a few days in advance. However, Rios-Berrios’s research offers the possibility of extending this window to one or even two weeks. Her work suggests that monitoring Kelvin waves could provide early indications of periods of heightened tropical cyclone activity, offering a potential breakthrough in the science of hurricane forecasting. “We could start thinking about anticipating one week, two weeks ahead of time,” Rios-Berrios said.
Imagine this: forecasters could issue warnings of potential hurricane activity weeks in advance, giving communities in vulnerable regions—such as Rios-Berrios’s native Puerto Rico—more time to prepare and mitigate the effects of storms. This would be a dramatic improvement to current methods, where the lack of adequate time for cities and countries to prepare has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
Rios-Berrios’s work also has significant implications in the context of climate change. As the planet warms, hurricanes are becoming more intense, driven by higher sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture. Her research raises important questions about how Kelvin waves—and, consequently, hurricanes—might behave in a changing climate. Will these waves become stronger or more frequent, leading to more powerful storms? Or could changes in global atmospheric patterns reduce their influence?
Answering these questions will require significant advances in climate modeling, especially in how these models simulate the intricate relationships between Kelvin waves and tropical cyclones. While current models provide useful insights, they lack the detail necessary to fully capture these complex interactions. “They’re very powerful, but unfortunately, they cannot resolve all the fine details of tropical cyclones,” Rios-Berrios said. “So I think we need to spend more resources and continually improve our climate models so that they can give us certain information about how hurricanes will change in the changing climate.” Overall, improved models will be crucial for understanding the future of hurricane behavior in a warming world.
Rosimar Rios-Berrios’s journey is not just about scientific discovery; it’s a deeply personal mission. From her early experiences in Puerto Rico, where hurricanes were a deadly threat, to her cutting-edge research on the atmospheric forces that drive storm formation, her work is rooted in a desire to help others. Her research stands as a beacon of hope for communities like her own, which face the brunt of these natural disasters. When asked what she would say to a younger version of herself, she said, “Our atmosphere is a lot more complex than we think it is. And even though hurricanes can be very destructive, there is a lot we don’t know about them. And so, pursuing a career in research to understand how hurricanes form and become strong could be very interesting.” We agree.